Possible U.S. and Israeli Recognition of Somaliland Could Lead to Strategic Military Partnership

Political observers and security analysts say that if the United States and Israel were to formally recognize Somaliland, it could pave the way for a landmark defense agreement—transforming the self-governing territory into a strategic partner for Western security interests in the Horn of Africa.

Such an agreement, they argue, would likely include provisions for military cooperation, joint training exercises, intelligence sharing, and possibly the establishment of military facilities. Proponents of the idea believe it would provide Somaliland with credible protection against any external aggression beyond its borders, while offering Washington and Tel Aviv a vital foothold in one of the world’s most strategically contested regions.

Strategic Rationale
Somaliland’s coastline stretches along the Gulf of Aden, overlooking one of the busiest maritime corridors in the world—the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Control and stability in this area are critical to the flow of global trade and energy shipments. For the U.S. and Israel, securing reliable partners in such chokepoints has long been a central component of their defense and foreign policy strategies.

“If recognition comes with a defense pact, it will be a game-changer,” said one regional security expert in Nairobi. “It would allow Somaliland to deter hostile actions, whether from state actors or non-state militant groups, and it would give the U.S. and Israel operational reach into the Red Sea and beyond.”

Potential Components of the Partnership
Based on similar U.S. agreements elsewhere, such a pact could include:

• Joint Military Exercises: Similar to the U.S.–Bahrain naval drills in the Persian Gulf, Somaliland could host regular joint exercises aimed at maritime security and counterterrorism.

• Security Infrastructure Development: Israel, with its advanced defense technology, could help build coastal radar stations and drone surveillance networks, akin to the systems it has provided in Cyprus and Greece.

• Intelligence Sharing: A tripartite intelligence-sharing arrangement could be established to monitor piracy, arms trafficking, and extremist movements in the region.

• Logistical Support Bases: The Port of Berbera could be upgraded to host U.S. and Israeli naval vessels, providing refueling and maintenance services, much like the U.S. facility in Djibouti.

Political and Security Benefits for Somaliland
Advocates within Somaliland say such a defense framework would bring multiple benefits:

1. Deterrence Against Hostile Neighbors: A formal alliance with two powerful militaries would significantly reduce the likelihood of incursions or blockades by other regional actors.

2. Enhanced Counterterrorism Capacity: Al-Shabaab and other extremist groups operating in the Horn of Africa would face greater pressure if Somaliland became an integrated part of a regional security network.

3. Economic Spin-offs: Large-scale infrastructure improvements tied to defense cooperation—such as roads, ports, and communication networks—could also boost trade and investment.

Geopolitical Implications
A U.S.–Israel–Somaliland security pact would almost certainly draw criticism from countries opposed to Somaliland’s independence, most notably Somalia and its allies. It could also heighten tensions with China, which has expanded its presence in Djibouti and has strong ties with Mogadishu. However, supporters argue that a clear and robust defense commitment would stabilize the region and protect vital international trade routes.

Historical Parallels
Analysts often point to the U.S. recognition of Israel in 1948 and the subsequent military partnership that turned the young state into one of the most advanced militaries in the world within decades. Another example is the U.S.–Taiwan relationship, where defense cooperation continues despite political sensitivities.

For Somaliland, the path to recognition remains politically complex. Yet if the United States and Israel take that step, many in Hargeisa believe it could usher in a new era—one in which the territory’s security, economy, and diplomatic standing are transformed through a formal military strategic partnership.